Small Businesses in a Spin: What's Going On?

In the United States, small businesses are feeling the heat. The National Federation of Independent Business's Uncertainty Index hit its second-highest level since 1973. This means small business owners are worried about the economy's future. The share of respondents who think it's a good time to expand dropped significantly in February. This is the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. The Trump administration's back-and-forth on tariffs is a big reason for this uncertainty. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. The administration has been changing its mind about them a lot. This has made small businesses nervous. They are worried about inflation, which is when prices go up. They are also worried about a recession, which is when the economy slows down. President Trump even said he wouldn't rule out a recession this year. This sent major stock indexes tumbling. The White House has used NFIB data to show economic strength in the past. But now, that optimism is fading. Small businesses are a big part of the US economy. They employ nearly half of all private-sector workers. A global trade war could make prices go up. This, along with signs of a slowing economy, is making small businesses cautious. Business owners are rethinking their plans. They are looking at vendor contracts, labor force, and borrowing strategies. Tariffs could raise costs, so they are reviewing their cash flow and financial statements. The Trump administration has been changing tariffs a lot. This includes a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and a 20% tariff on China. The administration is also tightening immigration rules. This could raise labor costs for certain industries. In the NFIB's latest survey, more respondents said labor costs are their biggest problem. This is the second-highest reading since December 2021. The administration is promising more tariffs in the future. They want to match other countries' tariffs dollar for dollar. This could mean more uncertainty for small businesses.