South Africa’s Business Mood Gets a Lift, But the Middle East Still Worries

A new survey shows that business confidence in South Africa jumped 3 points during the first quarter of this year, reaching its highest level since 2015 (excluding the COVID recovery). The rise is linked to a steady government, friendly interest rates and a stronger rand against the dollar. Yet many companies still feel uneasy because events far from their borders, especially the conflict in the Middle East, could hit supply chains and push up energy costs across Africa. The survey was carried out by Rand Merchant Bank in partnership with the Bureau of Economic Research, and it points to a cautious optimism among firms.South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has echoed these worries, noting that the Middle East war is already straining the continent’s logistics and raising prices. Despite these concerns, businesses remain supportive of the government after Ramaphosa’s February address that tackled water shortages, crime and unemployment. Economists say that to keep confidence growing, the country needs stronger demand, credible policies and real progress on structural reforms. The strengthening rand and stable interest rates have helped cushion the economy over the quarter, but turning this positive sentiment into lasting growth will be a challenge in 2026.