The Fed's New Normal: Higher Rates and Economic Shocks

The economy is shifting, and so is the Federal Reserve's approach. The central bank's leader, Jerome Powell, recently spoke about these changes. He highlighted that long-term interest rates are expected to be higher. This is due to various factors, including changes in the economy and policy adjustments. Powell's remarks came during a research conference in Washington, D. C. He reflected on the Fed's policy framework review from a few years back. Since then, the economy has seen significant changes. One of the most notable shifts has been the surge in inflation. This led the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively, a move that hasn't been seen in decades. Despite these rate hikes, inflation expectations remain close to the Fed's 2% target. However, Powell cautioned that inflation could become more volatile. This volatility could be due to more frequent and persistent supply shocks. These shocks pose a challenge for both the economy and the central bank. The Fed has been navigating these challenges carefully. For seven years after the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed kept its benchmark borrowing rate near zero. But since late 2024, this rate has been between 4. 25% and 4. 5%. This shift reflects the Fed's efforts to balance supporting employment and controlling inflation. Powell has been warning about these supply shocks for weeks. He has also noted that policy changes could make the Fed's job even more difficult. While he didn't mention specific policies, like tariffs, he acknowledged their potential impact on growth and inflation. The Fed has been cautious about easing policy. Last year, it cut its benchmark rate by a full percentage point. But since then, it has been reluctant to make further cuts. This cautious approach reflects the Fed's ongoing efforts to adapt to the changing economic landscape.