The Great VP Prediction: Unpacking Polymarket's Top 4 Picks for Harris's Running Mate

As Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, prediction market Polymarket has revealed its top four picks. But what do these candidates think about crypto? Let's dive in and explore their stance on digital assets. First off, it's essential to understand how prediction markets work. Traders exchange contracts that pay out based on the outcome of unknown future events. The prices generated from these contracts represent the collective prediction of market participants. "If you aggregate everybody's economic interests in one place, you should get to a source of a probability or a source of truth," says Rob Hadick, a partner at Dragonfly and an investor in Polymarket. So, who are Polymarket's top picks? Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, takes the top spot with a 36% chance of being chosen. Kelly has been a vocal supporter of crypto, voting in favor of overturning Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB-121) in May. This bill aimed to deter investment banks from offering crypto custody at scale. Coming in second is Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, with a 33% chance. Shapiro has been sued by environmental organization Save Carbon County for allegedly facilitating the polluting activities of Bitcoin miner Stronghold Digital Mining. However, his stance on crypto remains unclear. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, takes the third spot with a 17% chance. Walz has never publicly spoken about crypto, making it difficult to gauge his views on digital assets. However, his track record of voting in favor of technological progress could be seen as open-mindedness. Pete Buttigieg, the US Secretary of Transportation, rounds out the top four with a 7% chance. During his 2020 presidential campaign, Buttigieg advocated for treating Bitcoin as a commodity, suggesting the Securities and Exchange Commission should not regulate it. But what about the dark horse candidate, Gary Peters? While not yet listed on Polymarket's roster, Axios reported that unions are pushing for Harris to choose Peters as her running mate. Peters is "strongly against crypto" and has cosponsored Senator Elizabeth Warren's Digital Asset Money Laundering Act. However, he did vote in favor of repealing SAB-121. So, what's the takeaway? Polymarket's predictions may not guarantee an outcome, but they do provide valuable insights into the candidates' stances on crypto. As the election heats up, it's essential to stay informed and think critically about the candidates' views on digital assets.