The Medicaid Maze: How Trump's Bill Could Shake Up the 2026 Midterms

The political landscape is heating up as President Trump's sweeping tax-and-spending bill takes center stage. Democrats are seizing the moment, focusing on the bill's substantial cuts to Medicaid, a program that supports millions of low-income and elderly Americans. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently delivered a lengthy speech against the bill, calling it "cruel" and "dangerous, " with a spotlight on the nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid reductions. Trump, on the other hand, is painting a rosy picture of economic growth, touting the bill as a game-changer for the country. He's kicking off a year-long celebration of America's 250th birthday, using the occasion to promote the legislation. But not everyone is convinced. Polls show more people oppose the bill than support it, though certain provisions, like work requirements for Medicaid, have more backing. The challenge for Republicans lies in framing the debate. It's tough to sell the idea that without the bill, taxes will rise. Meanwhile, the cuts to Medicaid could hit close to home for many people. Nearly 7 in 10 Americans have a personal connection to the program, either through themselves, a family member, or a close friend. Medicaid enjoys widespread popularity. A significant majority view the program favorably, want to see its funding increased or maintained, and believe it works well for low-income individuals. However, misconceptions abound. Many incorrectly think most working-age adults on Medicaid are unemployed, or that undocumented immigrants are eligible for the program, which is not true. Republicans argue they're targeting waste and fraud, but the Congressional Budget Office estimates nearly 12 million people could lose their health insurance over the next decade. Health care has been a pivotal issue in past midterm elections, with the Affordable Care Act playing a major role in both Democratic losses and gains. The political climate is complex. Trump's approval ratings are modest, and congressional Republicans fare even worse. But congressional Democrats are also struggling with low approval ratings, particularly among their own party members. The big question is whether Democrats can rally ahead of the midterms or if internal dissatisfaction will give Republicans the edge.