The Quiet Shift on the Supreme Court Bench

A president who wants to keep his court solid has told reporters that he hopes the two oldest justices, Alito and Thomas, will stay on for many more years. The comment came after they joined a dissent against the court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s tariff plan. Neither justice has spoken publicly about leaving, but the conversation around a vacancy is growing as they near the average retirement age of 80 for this court. If one steps down, Trump would have a chance to name a fourth conservative judge—something that hasn’t happened since the Nixon era. The Senate confirms nominees, and with Republicans holding a slim majority now, a change in the chamber could block any new pick. Experts say that a conservative justice would be most likely to retire when a Republican president and Senate are in power, giving the seat a higher chance of staying on the right side of the ideological scale.Alito, who joined in 2006, has already written a landmark opinion that overturned Roe v. Wade and steered the court on issues from affirmative action to gun rights. He plans to release a book in October, which could hint at an impending exit, as it would be hard to promote it while still on the bench. Thomas, appointed in 1991, is set to become the second-longest‑serving justice after William O. Douglas and has been healthy enough to stay active, though he missed a few arguments in 2022 due to flu‑like symptoms. The timing of retirements has become a strategic move in recent decades, with the last politically significant one being Thurgood Marshall’s departure in 1991. While liberal justices have faced pressure to step down, conservatives rarely push their own for it. Some commentators suggest that now might be a prudent time for Alito or Thomas to consider leaving, given the potential for a younger successor who could shape U. S. law for decades. The rest of the court remains balanced: Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Sotomayor are 71, while the liberal justices—Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson—are younger. Trump’s three other appointments are also in their 50s to early 60s, so the court could see a significant shift if either Alito or Thomas retires before mid‑2024.