Tornado Hot Spots Are Moving Northward

The classic tornado belt that once stretched across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is no longer the only place where storms can turn deadly. Recent data shows that Illinois has been leading the nation in tornado counts for most of the past few years, with numbers now rivaling or exceeding those of the traditional “tornado alley. ” In 2026, Illinois has already reported 200 tornadoes, putting it at the top of the national list. The state’s total for 2025 was 126, and 120 in 2023. By comparison, Texas—once the world’s most tornado‑prone state for nearly 40 years—has seen a decline of about 25% over the last decade, and Kansas has dropped by roughly 45%.The shift is tied to climate change. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and this extra water vapor moves farther north as temperatures rise. When moist air meets dry, hot air from the southwest, it creates the perfect environment for severe storms. Even if a storm doesn’t form, the higher temperatures and humidity are key ingredients that make tornadoes more likely. Over the past five years, Illinois has averaged about 118 tornadoes each year, while Kansas remains around 50 and Texas around 100. These trends suggest that the ingredients for severe weather—tornadoes, large hail and flooding—will keep increasing in the coming years. The pattern shows that people living just a few states away from what was once considered “tornado alley” should be prepared for the same level of risk. Local emergency plans and building codes may need to adapt to this new reality.