Trump Family Turns to Prediction Markets for New Bets

After losing his casino business, the Trump family has shifted focus to prediction markets, where people bet on a wide range of events. Donald Trump’s early push for sports betting in New Jersey was rejected by lawmakers, but today his son, Donald Trump Jr. , advises two major prediction‑market firms, Kalshi and Polymarket. The family’s new venture, Truth Predict, will use cryptocurrency to let users place bets on everything from elections to weather. The Trump administration is shaping the rules for these markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, led by a Trump appointee, treats prediction contracts as financial instruments rather than gambling. This distinction helps the markets avoid state gaming laws that could restrict or ban sports‑style betting. Critics say this creates a conflict of interest, especially since the Trump family’s casino allies have long funded his political campaigns.Casino operators fear that prediction markets siphon off customers who would otherwise bet at licensed sportsbooks. They argue that these platforms act like unlicensed online casinos, evading taxes and operating where sports betting is illegal. In response, states such as Nevada and New Jersey have sued companies like Kalshi, while the CFTC has defended its regulatory authority. The industry’s rapid growth is evident: users worldwide spend over $5 billion a week on prediction platforms. Yet the sector faces legal challenges, including accusations of insider trading and “death markets” that pay out on violent events. Federal regulators have issued guidance to prevent manipulation, but many states continue to pursue enforcement. Political pressure is mounting. Several lawmakers have introduced bills targeting prediction markets, especially those involving sports and political events. While Democrats dominate these proposals, some Republicans have joined in bipartisan efforts to curb the industry’s expansion. The debate highlights a clash between federal oversight and state gaming laws, with the Trump family at the center of the controversy.