Trump's Moves: Taiwan on Edge

Taiwan is keeping a close eye on Trump's actions. Why? Because the U. S. president's decisions could give clues about how he might handle a serious threat to Taiwan. The U. S. is set to meet with Russia in Saudi Arabia, but Ukraine won't be there. This has sparked worries in Kyiv and the EU, who want a seat at the peace table. Trump's approach is different from his predecessor, Joe Biden. He's more focused on deals and transactions. Taiwan is far away, but Trump's moves matter there too. Some people in Taiwan are nervous that Trump's handling of Ukraine could hint at how he'd respond to a conflict between China and Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as its own and has been ramping up pressure on the island. They've been using military force, economic pressure, and even spreading false information to cause trouble. Taiwan's situation is unique. It's on the "first island chain, " a line of U. S. -allied territories that are crucial for keeping Chinese forces in check. Taiwan also makes important technologies, like AI and missile tracking systems. If China were to invade, it would face challenges like the rough Taiwan Strait and limited beaches for landing. The U. S. doesn't officially recognize Taiwan as a separate country, but it's Taiwan's biggest supporter and supplier of weapons. For decades, the U. S. has kept quiet about whether it would send troops to defend Taiwan. This has left both Beijing and Taipei guessing. Trump has made some surprising comments about Taiwan. He's suggested that Taiwan should pay the U. S. for protection. He's also accused Taiwan of stealing U. S. chip technology and threatened tariffs to make Taiwan's chipmakers move operations to the U. S. Some experts, including former National Security Adviser John Bolton, have criticized Trump for not offering Ukraine a path to NATO membership or helping it reclaim lost territory. Trump's administration has proposed some unusual ideas. They've suggested that Ukraine give the U. S. access to half of its rare earth minerals in exchange for aid. They've also talked about sending U. S. troops to protect these minerals after the war ends. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned down this offer, saying it didn't provide enough security for his country. A Taiwanese newspaper, United Daily News, has warned that Taiwan could be next if Ukraine falls. They've pointed out that Trump blamed Zelenskyy for the war and accused Biden of starting it. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party has rejected the idea that Taiwan is next, but the newspaper argues that Ukraine's situation is a clear warning for Taiwan. A recent poll in Taiwan showed that 47% of people think U. S. -Taiwan relations will stay the same, while 24% think they'll get worse. Only 12% believe they'll improve. The U. S. State Department has said that the U. S. and Taiwan have a strong unofficial relationship and that they want cross-strait differences to be resolved peacefully. China is happy with how the negotiations are going. Chinese envoy to the UN, Fu Cong, hopes that the parties will address the root causes of the crisis and find a way to stabilize the region. Experts have different views on what Trump's goals are. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the U. S. Indo-Pacific Program's German Marshall Fund, thinks Trump wants to avoid a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, believes that a scenario where Taiwan's autonomy is weakened is more likely than a change in Beijing's stance. U. S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, are in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for talks. The Russia-Ukraine war is expected to be a big topic. U. S. defense and intelligence officials believe China's president has ordered his military to be ready to move against Taiwan by 2027. During his Senate confirmation hearing, Rubio said the U. S. must raise the costs of a Chinese offensive or it will have to deal with it soon.