Trump’s Texas Gamble: Will His Money Help a Controversial GOP Hopeful?

A recent shift in Texas politics has sparked worry among Republican strategists. When former President Donald Trump threw his support behind Attorney General Ken Paxton, a long‑time state senator lost the primary runoff. This upset moved Texas from a likely Republican seat to one that could lean Democratic, according to analysts. Paxton now faces two strong opponents. State Representative James Talarico, a rising Democratic figure, has raised $40 million so far this year and holds nearly $10 million in cash. Paxton, who has been indicted for fraud and was impeached by the Texas House, has only $7. 6 million raised and a modest bank balance of $2. 3 million. He denies any wrongdoing. Republican leaders argue that Texas is a costly state, with 20 television markets and expensive campaigns. The GOP already spent tens of millions to support the former senator, who was seen as a safer pick. A memo from last August warned that nominating Paxton could force the party to divert huge sums away from key battlegrounds. Some GOP operatives insist that Paxton needs external funding to stay competitive. A spokesperson for the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which backs Paxton, praised Trump’s endorsement and urged the former president to invest more money. The PAC claims no amount of money could counter Talarico’s record.Talarico has built a strong base in deeply Republican counties by emphasizing his Christian faith and pledging to tackle billionaires who allegedly keep the working class divided. Republicans have countered by accusing him of extreme views on immigration and gender issues. A recent poll shows the race tied. The situation forces Republicans to rethink their strategy in a state they previously considered safe. Senate Democrats’ super PAC spokesperson noted that Paxton’s candidacy has reshaped the GOP’s playbook. Trump’s own super PAC, MAGA Inc. , holds a $356 million war chest but has yet to allocate funds to Paxton. The PAC spent close to $377 million to elect Trump in 2024 and has invested modestly in other races. The Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $342 million in battleground states, but Texas is not on that list. The stakes are high. A Republican loss in the Senate could open the door for Democratic investigations into the Trump administration and give Democrats more sway over presidential appointments. Some Republican senators remain cautious about telling Trump how to spend his money, insisting it is his decision. Analysts suggest that Paxton’s vulnerability may have been amplified by Trump’s endorsement, which created a fiercely contested race. Others point to Texas Governor Greg Abbott as a potential backer; his committee reportedly holds nearly $96 million, though it is unclear whether he would fund Paxton.