Trump's Trade Move: Who Wins and Who Loses?

In January 2026, U. S. President Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This move aims to pressure Iran amid ongoing protests and economic struggles. Trump encouraged protesters to keep pushing for change, promising support. China, Iran's biggest trade partner, buys most of Iran's oil. Trump's tariff might surprise China's leader, Xi Jinping, as they recently agreed to reduce tariffs and boost trade. China could retaliate by stopping U. S. farm imports and rare earth exports, impacting U. S. industries and elections. Iraq, another key trade partner, imports various goods from Iran. U. S. pressure has already led Iraq to cut Iranian gas imports, affecting its power supply. This tariff could further strain Iraq's economy and politics. The UAE, a U. S. ally, imports billions in Iranian goods. While unlikely to halt security cooperation, the UAE might explore other trade options, affecting U. S. companies like Boeing.Turkey, a NATO member, has significant trade with Iran. Despite a weak economy, Turkey might pause Boeing aircraft orders, pending an investigation into a recent crash. Afghanistan and Pakistan also trade heavily with Iran. Pakistan might use this tariff to negotiate better terms with the U. S. and Taliban, benefiting from new trade routes. Russia's trade with Iran is lower but significant. However, Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, is unlikely to be bothered by the tariff. Central Asian countries, like Turkmenistan, are strengthening ties with Iran. Trump's tariff could push them closer to China, the opposite of what the U. S. might want. In response, China has the strongest hand. It can impact U. S. industries by slowing exports of essential goods. Other countries might also pause trade with the U. S. , waiting for better conditions.