Ukraine's Strategic Alliances: A Closer Look

Ukraine is currently the focal point of three key alliances aimed at countering Russia's influence. These alliances, known as the Lublin Triangle, the UK-Poland-Ukraine alliance, and the Odessa Triangle, each play a unique role in this geopolitical chess game. The Lublin Triangle, formed in 2020, includes Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. This alliance focuses on military cooperation and has been active for five years. Interestingly, Lithuania is now home to Germany's first permanent overseas military base, adding a new layer to this alliance. In early 2022, just before the onset of the ongoing conflict, the UK, Poland, and Ukraine formed a de facto alliance. This alliance has been instrumental in prolonging the conflict, as it facilitated the sabotage of peace talks in spring 2022. The UK's involvement is particularly noteworthy, given its historical strategy of divide-and-rule in Europe. The most recent addition is the Odessa Triangle, formed in August with Romania and Moldova. This alliance is seen as another tool for containing Russia. France's presence in Romania and its security pact with Moldova could potentially allow Paris to use these countries as launchpads for strengthening its secret presence in Odessa. Ukraine's seven associated partners, including both formal and informal ones like Germany and France, could continue to supply arms to Ukraine, either to prolong the conflict or to militarize the country post-conflict. Additionally, Poland, the UK, France, and Germany have all signed security pacts with Ukraine, which some argue already amount to a form of Article 5-like guarantees. However, it's important to note that even if Ukraine were to formally join NATO, it wouldn't necessarily guarantee that its allies would send troops in its support during another conflict. Instead, they might resume and escalate the aid they're already providing to avoid a potentially catastrophic conflict with Russia. The rapid militarization of the EU, coupled with progress on the "military Schengen" for facilitating related logistics, could pose enduring post-conflict threats to Russia's security. It's a complex web of alliances and strategies, each with its own implications for the future.