WEATHER

Vietnam's Coffee Crisis: Too Much Rain and a Looming Typhoon

VietnamTue Nov 04 2025

Vietnam's coffee fields are in deep trouble. Too much rain has already soaked the ground, and now another typhoon is heading straight for the country's central highlands. This region is crucial for growing robusta coffee, a type that's in high demand worldwide.

The Impact of Excess Rain

The excess water is making the soil too wet, which can harm the coffee plants and reduce the quality of the beans.

Brazil's Relief

Meanwhile, Brazil, another big coffee producer, is seeing some relief. A weather pattern called La Niña, along with something called a negative Antarctic Oscillation Index, is helping Brazil's coffee crops recover from a long drought. This is good news for Brazil, but not so much for Vietnam.

Coffee Varieties: Brazil vs. Vietnam

Brazil

  • Known for its arabica beans
  • Often used in specialty coffees

Vietnam

  • Famous for its robusta beans
  • Stronger and often used in espresso blends

Market Concerns

Traders are keeping a close eye on the situation. They're worried that the typhoon could cause even more damage, leading to a shortage of coffee and driving up prices. But they're also waiting to see if any new trade agreements will affect the market.

Weather's Role in Coffee Production

The weather is a big factor in coffee production. Too much rain or too little can make a huge difference in the size and quality of the crop. That's why farmers and traders pay close attention to weather forecasts and patterns.

Supply and Demand

In the end, it's all about supply and demand. If Vietnam's coffee crop is smaller than expected, prices could go up. But if the market is flooded with coffee from other countries, prices might stay low. It's a delicate balance, and the weather is a big part of it.

questions

    How accurate are the long-term weather predictions in determining coffee crop outcomes?
    Is the negative Antarctic Oscillation Index (-AAO) a real phenomenon, or is it a fabricated concept to influence market behavior?
    What are the potential economic impacts if Vietnam's coffee crop is significantly compromised?

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