Warm Weather Could Spur Low Voter Turnout in Michigan and Wisconsin

Across the midsection of the United States, a cold front is slowly moving eastward. Interestingly, this front is expected to bring rain on Election Day to two crucial swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin. By evening, the rain is set to move southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. In Wisconsin, Madison will see lighter rain around midday, with Milwaukee following a bit later in the afternoon. Despite the rain, it will be exceptionally warm with temperatures in the 60s, which is unusual for this time of year. Over in Michigan, rain will start in the western parts near Grand Rapids and slowly spread eastward throughout the day. Detroit is expected to get its share of rain in the evening. Here, the weather will be surprisingly warm, with highs reaching 70 in the western part of the state and even higher in Detroit, hitting the 70s. Meanwhile, other swing states in the East, such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, will enjoy dry and mild conditions. In the West, states like Arizona and Nevada will see chilly temperatures by desert standards, but without any rain. Snow is expected in non-swing states within the Rocky Mountains, from Montana to Colorado, with winter alerts already issued in those regions. Some surprising weather patterns are also anticipated in nearby states along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, including Louisiana, Eastern Texas, and Arkansas. These areas could face heavy rain, potentially leading to flash flooding and up to 4 inches of rainfall in some spots from Louisiana to southern Indiana. Research shows that weather can indeed influence voter turnout and even how people vote in national elections. Rain, for instance, can decrease same-day voter turnout by about 1 point for every centimeter of rainfall, according to a recent study. However, this impact can be lessened if voters have alternatives like mail-in ballots or early voting. “Weather does affect voting, but it’s not as big of a deal as it used to be, ” said Evan Myers, a senior vice president at AccuWeather, who specializes in election weather. He explained that early in-person voting and mail-in options have reduced the impact of Election Day weather on turnout.