What Could Go Wrong for China if Taiwan Stands Strong?

China's potential military action against Taiwan could backfire in a big way. Many studies look at how the U. S. and its allies would respond to such an attack. But what if China doesn't succeed? The results could be catastrophic for China. Experts have explored two possible scenarios. In the first, a small fight turns into a long blockade. China might have to back down after the U. S. steps in. In the second, China launches a full-scale invasion. This could lead to heavy losses and a retreat after months of fighting. A failed attack would hurt China in many ways. The economy could take a huge hit, possibly costing trillions. The military would suffer significant losses, making future operations risky. Social unrest could rise, and China's global standing could take a major blow. President Xi Jinping's political future could also be at risk. His "Chinese Dream" of national rejuvenation depends on success. A failed military campaign could turn his dream into a nightmare, undermining his authority.Xi might still decide to act, though. Leaders often ignore high costs if they believe the benefits are substantial. He might fear that not acting would be worse for his legacy. History shows that misperceptions can lead to conflict, like in the Korean War and World War I. China's military leaders might not give Xi honest assessments of their capabilities. This could lead to risky decisions, similar to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Inexperience in high-intensity conflicts could also encourage risk-taking. Deterrence is key to preventing conflict. Taiwan, the U. S. , and other allies must show they can repel an attack and are committed to doing so. They must also highlight the high costs of failure for China. A failed operation would have severe consequences. China's economy, military, social stability, and international standing would all suffer. The history of failed amphibious operations shows just how bad things could get.