What People Expect About Future Science Hopes

People currently seem to think the US will not confirm alien life by the upcoming benchmark. The mood feels strongly against a quick yes. Most folks expect a no. There is little agreement on a fast confirmation.

Talk about an AI lab promising another Millennium Prize solution also shows mixed feelings. For the upcoming benchmark, expectations lean toward a no. But for a later deadline, the vibe shifts toward a possible yes. So the picture is divided, with a slight edge for yes in the later case.

Questions about West Nile cases in New York City have a clear no leaning. People think the number of cases will stay above the expected level. The feeling is that fewer cases are unlikely.

Discussion about rain in Seattle this period shows a strong no for less rain. Most think the city will get more drops than the low guess. Meanwhile, Seoul’s expected rain looks like a yes for less precipitation. For the middle range, the consensus is a clear no.