POLITICS
What Went Wrong with Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll?
Iowa, USAMon Dec 16 2024
Iowa pollster Ann Selzer recently faced questions about her poll that predicted a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and President-elect Donald Trump in Iowa, a typically Republican state. The poll stirred controversy when Trump won Iowa by over 10 percentage points. In an interview, Selzer admitted she was puzzled by the inaccuracies and reassured everyone that she didn't manipulate the data.
Selzer pointed out that her polling has been historically accurate, making the outcome even more baffling. She addressed allegations that she interfered in the election, which is a crime. Selzer emphasized that she takes these allegations seriously but finds them hard to believe due to a lack of evidence.
Selzer also highlighted that her poll might have backfired by energizing Republican voters who thought they were guaranteed a win. Despite the criticism, Selzer has decided to move on to new projects after the election.
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questions
What alternative explanations are there for the discrepancy in the polling results other than intentional misconduct?
What methodological flaws could have led to such a significant discrepancy in the polling results?
If Ann Selzer's polls were so accurate in the past, did she consider naming her firm 'Selzer's Crystal Ball'?