What's the Buzz Around the Fed's Next Move?

People are placing bets on what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next month. The chances of a small cut, 25 basis points, have gone up to 81% on a platform called Polymarket. This is a big jump from the 67% seen the day before and 44% from the previous week. But the idea of a larger cut, 50 basis points, is still low at just 2%. The thought of rates staying the same has dropped too, from 30% to 18% in just one day. Over $159 million has been put on the line to predict this outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee will make the final call at their meeting on December 10. Other platforms, like Kalshi, show similar odds. They also think there's an 81% chance of a small rate cut. This matches what the CME FedWatch tracker is saying, which is 84%. Why the change? Some Fed officials have hinted at a possible cut. This news has made both stock and crypto markets happy, with assets like Bitcoin going up. Big names in finance, like Goldman Sachs' chief economist and investor Bill Gross, also think a rate cut is coming. But will it happen? The wait continues.