The need for food in sub-Saharan Africa is growing fast. This region is set to see the biggest jump in food demand globally. But relying heavily on imports can be risky. It exposes the region to political and economic ups and downs. Plus, expanding farmland can harm the environment. Cereals like maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat are crucial. They cover almost half of the farmland and provide a big chunk of calories and proteins. By 2050, the demand for these grains is expected to double.

In the last decade, there has been progress in growing more cereals locally. From 2010 to 2020, self-sufficiency in cereals went up from 84% to 92%. This happened despite a 29% increase in population. How was this done? By boosting yields per hectare by 44%, expanding farm areas by 34%, and switching from millet to maize, which gives more yield. This shift is notable because maize is more productive.

Looking ahead to 2050, the outlook is not as bleak as it once seemed. The baseline area in 2020 is larger, and maize now makes up a bigger share of crops. The population growth rate is also projected to be less steep. However, to stop further expansion of farmland, a significant change is needed. The annual yield increase must jump from the current 20 kg per hectare per year to 58 kg per hectare per year. This might seem like a tall order, but it is possible. Other regions have done it, and the potential is there in sub-Saharan Africa.

Achieving this will require major changes. It will need investments in farming practices, socioeconomic support, and political will. One key factor is nitrogen use. It needs to at least triple, but this must be done smartly. The right agronomic practices are essential to make this work. It is not just about adding more fertilizer. It is about using it in a way that fits the local context.

The future of cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa is challenging. But it is not impossible. With the right strategies and investments, the region can meet its growing demand for food. It can do so without harming the environment or relying too heavily on imports. The key is to think critically about what has worked and what needs to change. It is about finding sustainable solutions that fit the unique needs of the region.

FOOD DEMAND PROJECTIONS IN AFRICA

Feeding Africa: The Cereal Challenge

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