Russia's military leaders have their eyes on the long game. They are gearing up for operations that could last up to nine months.

      This is a clear sign that Vladimir Putin isn't eager to wrap up the war he initiated anytime soon. The Institute for the Study of War rated this. The plan to surround Kharkiv's city of Kupiansk.

    The plan is a prime example of their long-term strategy and shows that they expect the conflict to drag on for a while.  This isn't the only example.  Russia has been advancing steadily in other areas too.

       Moscow has already got their hands on Donetsk's city of Avdiivka. They are hoping to duplicate this success in other places, with a similar slow and steady approach.

    Let's talk about Vuhledar.  Ukraine pulled out of this city in October 2024.  Russia advanced further into the west, seizing it. In January, they managed to surround and take over Velyka Novosilka. These moves show a pattern of slow and deliberate advances.

    But don't expect things to speed up anytime soon. Military expert Emil Kastehelmi says that tough terrain, like rivers and open fields, will slow Russia down.  Even the battle for Toretsk, a city 90 miles away, has moved at a snail’s pace.

    Russia's success around both Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka are milestones, but they have also brought challenges. The Institute for the Study of War pointed out that Russia's plans for larger operations, like surrounding Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, will test their skills.

    So this is what we know. Russia's military leaders are banking on long-term operations. They are assuming that Putin has no intention of ending the war anytime soon. This indicates that Putin's goals are long-term and he isn't considering negotiations right now.

ISW

Putin's Long Game: Russia's Slow-Mo Strategy

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