Geopolitical risks (GPR) have a big impact on the prices of natural resources. These resources are vital for both survival and sustainable economies. The way these risks spread through markets is not straightforward. It changes over time and can be quite unpredictable. This is especially true for bulk energy and chemical commodities.

The spread of risk in these markets is not consistent. It varies depending on the time frame. Short-term risks are more intense than medium or long-term ones. Negative changes in risk are the primary cause of this spread. The bulk energy market is the main source of risk. On the other hand, the chemical commodity market is the main receiver.

Crude oil has a significant impact on bitumen markets. The chemical commodity market, being a downstream market of the crude oil industry, faces direct risk from the crude oil market. It also transmits risks through the "bulk energy - geopolitical risk - chemical commodity" path. This chain reaction is something that governments and regulators need to be aware of. They must take steps to prevent extreme spillover effects.

The findings highlight the need for proactive measures. Governments and regulators should focus on mitigating the impact of geopolitical risks on commodity markets. This is crucial for maintaining economic stability. Understanding the dynamics of risk contagion can help in developing effective strategies. These strategies can protect against extreme market shocks.

The study underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks. It also emphasizes the need for robust regulatory frameworks. These frameworks can help manage the spread of risks in commodity markets. By doing so, they can ensure a more stable and sustainable economic environment.

RISK CONTAGION AND SPILLOVERS

Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Market Shocks

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