How a Japanese Belief Changed College Odds and Health Habits

A Japanese superstition tied to unlucky numbers shifted demographic counts in 1967. More young people ended up in college than the timeline normally would have sent their way. That twist became a goldmine for researchers looking for natural experiments.

Economists and public health experts teamed up to ask a simple question: does more school actually make people healthier? They needed a way to separate school effects from money effects, so they used a tricky statistical model.

The model, called recursive bivariate probit, helped them cut through the noise. They tracked four habits: smoking, drinking, sleeping patterns, and getting screened for cancer at specific body sites.

What they found was striking. Students with degrees were noticeably less likely to smoke. They were also more likely to get certain cancer checks done. The advantage seemed to stretch further when better jobs and social status entered the picture.

People with degrees often report fewer health worries. The data suggests that when more folks finish school, the whole group gets a small health boost, even if the path isn't direct.